First of all, an empirical cognitive model: a complete bestcashbackprogramsforex process cons Best forex trade cashbackts of three stages trend initiation stage: from the market sentiment is enough people do Bestforextradecashback recognize the trend forexbrokercashback have some misconceptions about the trend trend development stage: from the market sentiment is enough people hesitate to recognize the trend and not recognize the trend between the completion stage of the trend, from the market sentiment is most people are Recognize the trend that is to say, the early stage of trend development is to cultivate a group of trend opponents and the end of the trend is to have enough trend followers of what determines the trend? The author believes that a large enough trend are the basic characteristics of the species itself to promote the technical trend can be described or predicted trend through morphological indicators, sensitivity differences, etc., but not with the cycle is very dangerous, a very simple example of a person at the age of 5, a little common sense, we can expect him to grow in height in the future, of course, the past 1 to 5 years old height also describes the rising trend if We have a fundamental understanding of people, we know what specific state height probability will stop growing up, and can predict a reasonable range of height, for example, Yao Mings child is likely to be no less than 170 cm, while the probability of Pan Changjiangs child cashback forex than 180 cm is very low But it is worth noting that even if you do not understand the theory of human growth, simply look at the technical cycle can also know a rough, of course, does not accurately tell you, but with the cycle can know about 18 years of age or more to continue to grow taller power is not enough, and the fundamentals, we study the diet, living patterns, genetics and other characteristics of a clear period of amplitude rhythm or even possible height, and observe the state of the skeleton to find out whether the closure stop on the growth, these are the fundamentals tell us so the study of the long-term trend of the market is needed to analyze the basic factors, but short-term The rhythm is not controlled by these studies, even if the nutritional ratio is more reasonable and healthy, people can not be expected to grow every day the height of the rhythm, morning and evening high and low here to explain the role of fundamentals in the above example is very important, then, does this mean that technical indicators are useless? The answer is no, technical indicators are not only useful, but also give many people a chance to get started because technical indicators are specific and easy to understand A parent may not be a geneticist and nutritionist, but through experience he knows that drinking yogurt, at certain times can promote height, and what time period height grows faster! Parents know that their childrens height is growing just fine, some people use sensitivity indicators to judge, if 200 days did not continue to grow taller to stop growing taller, this is the typical use of fast-cycle indicators and slow-cycle indicators to resonance analysis of the inflection point ideas, of course, this is not a hundred percent because a complete trend are a specific indicator cycle to describe it, an indicator can not be almost every time to describe a The trend of this indicator will only describe a part of continue to give the example just now, that is, each person to stop growing high time is special, but most cases are: if 200 days did not continue to grow high to stop growing high, only some people use 210 days, some people use 190 days, or 195 days, where the application of more people sacrifice the timeliness of judgment, but to improve the timeliness, we have to sacrifice the win rate and narrow the applicable population, there is not a perfect balance of both, so the existence of indicators so that most people do not need to understand the characteristics of the market itself, and thus lower the threshold of entry to the market, but the indicator sensitivity can not always be a data value, because the market is changing this point requires the market is fair enough, price information is transparent enough and contains enough information about the market, then the sensitivity will not appear to jump change Although we all know the importance of the trend, but the trend began when at least half of the market participants do not recognize the trend, at the end of the trend when at least half of the market participants are aware of the trend or the trend will not begin or end Therefore, we trade in the short term ideas are actually more speculative but the risk appetite for speculation, and investment should be strictly distinguished from local speculation most of the time can Summarized as see the mountain want to do more, see the pit want to do short a few moments is to see the mountain want to new highs, see the pit want to new lows below with a chart description   (Figure 1)   we note that the pattern of leading speculative sentiment is not fixed a said, but the final breakthrough before, there must be a sufficient to make speculative sentiment firmly bearish, that there will be a retracement, at least a small retracement look at this chart again  nbsp; (Figure 2)  The above chart is going through this brainwashing pattern of spot copper trend chart, so the higher the more empty, but choose the technical low in the attempt to prevent it from accelerating, but once up it is not good down  from the oscillation, we all found that in fact, flat oscillation, more and less actually choose the reverse point to open more and rarely chase, because the oscillation speculation, the space is not Very bullish, people tend to be conservative, hope that the market trend to go safe some precisely the market will not stop in most speculators think safe place so the beginning of the oscillation, breakthrough XX point to do more or chase short ideas is the most important short term ideas and arrive after a certain number of times, the need to introduce possible reverse ideas   (Figure 3)   The above chart is typical see mountain to do more, see the pit to do short ideas There is another way of thinking is to see the mountain to do new highs, see the pit to do new lows of this kind of thinking at the end of the trend, whether long or short end of the most common once this mood is found, short term special attention, the so-called homeopathic ideas may appear to be wrong  (Figure 4) the top two ovals are very easy to trigger the short term to do more ideas of the long point in fact , also to some profit, the middle two ellipses triggered by the medium-term ideas, then become the majority of speculative Waterloo the first two squares are looking at the downside trend opened, the third low ellipses are dead more emotions so the local emotions that lead to the reverse of the market is an established fact, but also the fact of change, that is, if most people choose to die more, the result is to sink together, if this time most people give up dead more, turn over the air, the downside Stop, here the short if not enough, it means that the relative long has enough counterparty then the downside or the continuation of the  core problem comes, how to identify more or less emotion?  The first aspect, the mood is a commonality when here focus on three details: 1, the major financial commentary, responsible for the editorial choice of the board in the article mainly to one side, the mood of the editors of the major sites is highlighted; 2, the results of the major sites voting; 3, each of the investors in contact with the attitude of yesterdays single This is a preliminary attitude of the three resonance is more important   nbsp; second aspect, operational resonance, on risk appetite, uniformly on the conservative side of this one exists on the premise that the previous aggressive emotional operation all failed to end, look at the technical long and short reasons all exist, and the lack of current direction in the fundamentals based on this situation, the general operation will exist a certain hesitation quotes are also this hesitation to fall because enough hesitation enough contradiction in order to have a counterparty, only to have counter-trend thinking of the third aspect, even if the trend of the followers most people can not stay up short term oscillations, look at the target are on the short side, this is difficult to observe this aspect is the most effective, if the short list at the beginning of the trend, the editor generally selected articles are more than short may be, the point of view is not too clear, but the operation is relatively clear, and investors will selectively see the ideas they want to see So the operation of yesterdays operation is more indulgent, and before if the stop loss, or reverse experience is more failure, so more choice to wait in fact this is the choice of stop loss must be a minority of trend in the middle of the time, the editors choose articles will be consistent with the trend, but the direction is bound to converge, the point and operation is all conservative, less clear investors are selective not to see these ideas, operation Recognize the dead, a few fast action will lock, short positions are easy to step short, or a few operations also most can not take   trend at the end of the editors selected articles are generally consistent with the trend, and the point operation are quite clear moderately aggressive articles, the direction is consistent basically can not find the opposite idea investors clearly doubt their own persistence, most people began to follow the trend, and feel counter-trend absolutely wrong this is counter-trend operation is generally a small stop loss, and do not dare to tolerate floating losses, homeopathic operation is very bold to take, no alert to floating losses generally speaking the complete trend trend on the general will have all of the above mentality, but closed quotes and closed ideas to see, the fact that someone, for example, see, using the reverse idea, most people use the reverse idea, it is possible to make the trend pause generally speaking the same purpose form is alternating implementation variation for example, the following This situation   (Figure 5)  as shown, this wave down went three patterns to confuse investors apparently, the wave down was adapted to the rhythm, then turn into the negative rhythm, negative down after the horizontal feel after the end of the negative fall, began to suddenly accelerate, and then under the platform to accelerate, the purpose is the same so when the direction of judgment, with emotions to think about the bottom, better than the form Therefore, the form is a reaction to short-term speculative sentiment, and not the direction of the decision